Rigorous research on gender issues
Rigorous research on gender issues
Rigorous research on gender issues
Rigorous research on gender issues
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Sexual Assault Allegations
Launch Topic
What we know about rape allegations
Rape and other forms of sexual assault can ruin lives. These are mostly male-on-female crimes. There is little doubt that the majority of sexual assault allegations are true. Despite this, few perpetrators are ever convicted.
This situation has fueled community concern and demands for change. Appropriate measures to deter sexual assault, provide justice for victims and hold perpetrators to account are clearly desirable.
At the same time, our research shows that women’s safety advocates have overstepped, using misleading estimates of false allegations to promote problematic positions and policies.
On this page, read our critique of the empirical estimates, our efforts to have women’s safety advocates acknowledge and rectify their errors, and our submission on the ramifications to the Australian Law Reform Commission.
Research Paper
Reviewing estimates of false rape claims
The sexual violence literature understates the prevalence rate
.
Historically, estimates of the prevalence of false sexual assault allegations varied widely, from almost zero to 40% or more.
Recently though, prominent sexual violence academics have agreed that the prevalence rate is estimatable within tight bounds and very low — with the “credible” estimates said to be “around 5%” or “between 2% and 10%” of reports being false.
In this research paper, we identify several shortcomings in the empirical studies on which that consensus is based. The specialised police rules they follow to determine whether to classify a report as “false” exclude many false and potentially false reports. The studies’ estimates are premised on there being no false allegations among the many equivocal or ambiguous cases classified as having insufficient evidence, or where the alleged victim withdrew their complaint, or where the accused was tried but acquitted. Some of the studies also suffer from incomplete or poor-quality data, limited interview response rates and mathematical errors.
The studies’ prevalence rates are better viewed as lower bound estimates, and we show that the actual prevalence rate could be materially higher.
Our findings have ramifications for how the sexual violence literature classifies false reports and how it describes and communicates prevalence rate estimates.
Click right to read the paper.
4 April 2023
Academic support for the paper
I appreciate the care and meticulous attention to detail shown in this manuscript. It makes a valuable contribution to the field, enhancing the credibility of research on false reporting with a methodical, transparent, and eyes-wide-open assessment of this most complex and challenging issue.
Dr Kim Lonsway
Director of Research
End Violence Against Women International
(Lead researcher for the 2009 US high-quality prevalence study on false sexual assault reports)
This is an important and overdue study. Given the paucity of research on false allegations of sexual offences, but also the valid concerns about giving disproportionate attention to them, this is just what is needed: a quantitative analysis which raises pertinent issues regarding estimations of prevalence, definitions, and methodologies, but without, it seems, taking any side or being polemical.
Dr Ros Burnett
Centre for Criminology
University of Oxford
(Editor of ‘Wrongful allegations of sexual and child abuse’, OUP 2016)
Launch Topic
COMPENDIUMS
The skewed public debate about the prevalence rate
Women’s safety agencies and the ABC are yet to adequately correct their claims about false rape allegations
Governmental bodies concerned with women’s safety, most notably the Australian Institute of Family Studies (AIFS) and Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS), along with the national broadcaster, have cited the consensus prevalence estimates to argue that sexual assault allegations are “overwhelmingly true”, with false allegations “extremely rare”.
These claims, and their ostensibly factual basis, have been used to influence the public’s perceptions, as well as those of people in the criminal justice system and policy-makers.
We first alerted the AIFS and the ABC to the errors in their publications in 2021, with ANROWS alerted in 2023, but all were reluctant to correct the record:
- The AIFS delayed withdrawing its publication until December 2022, and did so only quietly — without issuing a formal correction.
- The ABC at least issued a partial correction to some of its articles, but it was not prominent and the ABC continued to convey that false allegations are rare.
- ANROWS avoided making revisions until June this year, and the changes were limited. It maintains, without any robust empirical foundation, that evidence indicates that false allegations are rare.
We met similar behaviour from some (though not all) sexual violence academics when we sought their input and feedback on our research. Our scrutiny of their work and of the false allegations consensus was unwelcome.
Whatever their motivation, the upshot is that these bodies have misled the public, criminal justice system officials and policy-makers.
Click below to view and read about our protracted exchanges with the AIFS, ANROWS and the ABC.
20 June 2024
Submission
.
Putting the sexual violence agenda on a truer footing
Our research findings have several ramifications for law reformers
.
Women’s safety advocates have drawn on the consensus prevalence estimates to support several policy-related claims. These include that police vastly overestimate false allegations, that complainants should be believed by default, and that innocent men would be little affected by legal changes to lift convictions.
The Australian Law Reform Commission is currently considering several reform options aligned with such claims.
Our research findings mean that these claims are potentially unsafe. That the prevalence rate could be materially higher than the consensus estimates changes the reform calculus.
Accordingly, we argue that the Commission needs to carefully test claims advanced by sexual violence academics and women’s safety advocates, and to remain alert to the risk that options it is examining could engender more wrongful convictions. It may also need to revise or unwind earlier initiatives that drew on the consensus view.
Click right to read our submission.
31 May 2024
Launch Topic
Sexual Assault Allegations
Launch Topic
What we know about false rape claims
Rape and other forms of sexual assault can ruin lives. These are mostly male-on-female crimes. There is little doubt that the majority of sexual assault allegations are true. Despite this, few perpetrators are ever convicted.
This situation has fueled community concern and demands for change. Appropriate measures to deter sexual assault, provide justice for victims and hold perpetrators to account are clearly desirable.
At the same time, our research shows that women’s safety advocates have overstepped, using misleading estimates of false allegations to promote problematic positions and policies.
On this page, read our critique of the empirical estimates, our efforts to have women’s safety advocates acknowledge and rectify their errors, and our submission on the ramifications to the Australian Law Reform Commission.
Research Paper
Reviewing estimates of false rape allegations
The sexual violence literature understates the prevalence rate
.
Historically, estimates of the prevalence of false sexual assault allegations varied widely, from almost zero to 40% or more.
Recently though, prominent sexual violence academics have agreed that the prevalence rate is estimatable within tight bounds and very low — with the “credible” estimates said to be “around 5%” or “between 2% and 10%” of reports being false.
In this research paper, we identify several shortcomings in the empirical studies on which that consensus is based. The specialised police rules they follow to determine whether to classify a report as “false” exclude many false and potentially false reports. The studies’ estimates are premised on there being no false allegations among the many equivocal or ambiguous cases classified as having insufficient evidence, or where the alleged victim withdrew their complaint, or where the accused was tried but acquitted. Some of the studies also suffer from incomplete or poor-quality data, limited interview response rates and mathematical errors.
The studies’ prevalence rates are better viewed as lower bound estimates, and we show that the actual prevalence rate could be materially higher.
Our findings have ramifications for how the sexual violence literature classifies false reports and how it describes and communicates prevalence rate estimates.
Click here to read the paper.
.
.
.
Academic support for the paper
I appreciate the care and meticulous attention to detail shown in this manuscript. It makes a valuable contribution to the field, enhancing the credibility of research on false reporting with a methodical, transparent, and eyes-wide-open assessment of this most complex and challenging issue.
Dr Kim Lonsway
Director of Research
End Violence Against Women International
(Lead researcher for the 2009 US high-quality prevalence study on false sexual reports)
.
This is an important and overdue study. Given the paucity of research on false allegations of sexual offences, but also the valid concerns about giving disproportionate attention to them, this is just what is needed: a quantitative analysis which raises pertinent issues regarding estimations of prevalence, definitions, and methodologies, but without, it seems, taking any side or being polemical.
Dr Ros Burnett
Centre for Criminology
University of Oxford
(Editor of ‘Wrongful allegations of sexual and child abuse’, OUP 2016)
COMPENDIUMS
The skewed public debate about the prevalence rate
Women’s safety agencies and the ABC are yet to adequately correct their claims about false rape allegations
Governmental bodies concerned with women’s safety, most notably the Australian Institute of Family Studies (AIFS) and Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS), along with the national broadcaster, have cited the consensus prevalence estimates to argue that sexual assault allegations are “overwhelmingly true”, with false allegations “extremely rare”.
These claims, and their ostensibly factual basis, have been used to influence the public’s perceptions, as well as those of people in the criminal justice system and policy-makers.
We first alerted the AIFS and the ABC to the errors in their publications in 2021, with ANROWS alerted in 2023, but all were reluctant to correct the record:
- The AIFS delayed withdrawing its publication until December 2022, and did so only quietly — without issuing a formal correction.
- The ABC at least issued a partial correction to some of its articles, but it was not prominent and the ABC continued to convey that false allegations are rare.
- ANROWS avoided making revisions until June this year, and the changes were limited. It maintains, without any robust empirical foundation, that evidence indicates that false allegations are rare.
We met similar behaviour from some (though not all) sexual violence academics when we sought their input and feedback on our research. Our scrutiny of their work and of the false allegations consensus was unwelcome.
Whatever their motivation, the upshot is that these bodies have misled the public, criminal justice system officials and policy-makers.
Click here to read about our protracted exchanges with the AIFS and ANROWS, and here for those with the ABC.
20 June 20
Public submission
.
Putting the sexual violence agenda on a truer footing
Our research findings have several ramifications for law reformers
.
Women’s safety advocates have drawn on the consensus prevalence estimates to support several policy-related claims. These include that police vastly overestimate false allegations, that complainants should be believed by default, and that innocent men would be little affected by legal changes to lift convictions.
The Australian Law Reform Commission is currently considering several reform options aligned with such claims.Our research findings mean that these claims are potentially unsafe. That theprevalence rate could be materially higher than the consensus estimates changes the reform calculus.
Accordingly, we argue that the Commission needs to carefully test claims advanced by sexual violence academics and women’s safety advocates, and to remain alert to the risk that options it is examining could engender more wrongful convictions. It may also need to revise or unwind earlier initiatives that drew on the consensus view.
Click here to read our submission.
31 May 2024
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